The Merchant's News

The Merchant's News

🚨Refined Fuel Is Worth More Than The Crude It Comes From.
The profit from turning a barrel of oil into diesel just reached an all time high.
 • Giacomo Prandelli
RUSSIA STILL SELLS THE OIL. NOW IT HAS TO BUY BACK THE FUEL.
Ukraine is burning the refineries, the exports are vanishing and Moscow is importing the one thing it used to sell the world.
 • Giacomo Prandelli
Every Stock In My Book Just Beat Its Q2 Expectations
6 of my positions reported second quarter results over the past week. Every one beat expectations, and today every one is green. Here's the scorecard…
 • Giacomo Prandelli
The Merchant's Book (08/26)
The first edition of a monthly ritual. On the first week day of every month I open my actual portfolio, every position and my real entry price and I…
 • Giacomo Prandelli
Big Oil Just Printed A Record Q2, Is Trump About To Shut The Export Door?
Exxon, Chevron and the refiners just posted record profits and the president called it price gouging, right as he runs out of ways to get gasoline down.
 • Giacomo Prandelli

July 2026

3 Connections I'm Making On This War, 1 is Investable
My 3 reads on a widening war how it is outgrowing its map, why Iran has learned to bend oil, inflation and the Fed and the opportunity it is quietly…
 • Giacomo Prandelli
WHY ARE OIL PRICES BEING PUSHED DOWN?
Brent has slipped back as if the war were cooling. The mechanism behind the illusion, the crude quality deep dive, and the trade that follows.
 • Giacomo Prandelli
Who Wins At $100 Oil When The Tools To Cap It Are Spent?
Since the war began, 2 main shock absorbers capped every oil spike, and the supply cushion behind them is gone too. Yesterday Brent hit $100 and nothing…
 • Giacomo Prandelli
The Largest US Gas Producer Just Signed a 2 Gigawatt Power Deal And It's Still Down 15%
Two Q2 prints, two EPS misses, two green closes. The names and the moves, below.
 • Giacomo Prandelli
3 Oil Straits...Does The Market Understand The Gravity?
Backwardation is back, war risk is near 5% of hull and the bypass map is being redrawn from Yanbu to Baniyas. 3 chokepoints are jamming at once, and the…
 • Giacomo Prandelli
Which LNG Name Has The Market Priced Wrong? Q2 Answers Tuesday
Q2 earnings across the LNG value chain land in the next 3 weeks. Premium readers get the names.
 • Giacomo Prandelli
Where's The Trade? $59 Cracks, Hawkish Fed and Refiners Are Priced.
Refining margins at record $59 while crude sits $40 below March highs, 70% odds of a Fed hold and zero cuts priced for July 29. The trade isn't the…
 • Giacomo Prandelli
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