The Secret Deal to Keep Ruling

How America and Europe Made a Secret Trade-Off That Changed Everything

Dear Readers of The Merchant’s News,

Imagine a deal so big that it could reshape the world, but nobody talks about it openly.

That's exactly what might be happening between the United States and Europe right now.

Behind closed doors, while politicians give speeches about friendship and shared values, a much more calculated game is being played one where money talks louder than ideals, and where the future of global power hangs in the balance.

---

Subscribe and Get your daily dose, for free, of commodity and macro insights with bite-sized videos on my YouTube channel stay informed, stay ahead!

---

The Problem: Money Troubles Between Friends

For years, Europe has been selling way more stuff to America than America sells back to Europe. Think of it like this: if you and your friend traded baseball cards every day, but your friend always got 10 cards from you while you only got 3 back, you'd get pretty annoyed, right? Eventually, you'd demand a fairer deal or stop trading altogether.

That's exactly how America feels. In 2024, America bought $235.6 billion more goods from Europe than Europe bought from America. That's a huge pile of money flowing in the wrong direction, and it's getting worse every year. Just in the first five months of 2025, this gap jumped to $137.3 billion – that's 50% bigger than the same period in 2024.

To put this in perspective, imagine if your allowance was $100 a month, but you were somehow spending $235 at the European store while Europeans only spent $100 at your store. You'd quickly run out of money, and your parents would be furious. That's essentially what's happening between these economic superpowers.

This isn't just about numbers on a spreadsheet. When America buys more from Europe than Europe buys from America, it means American jobs are going overseas, American factories are closing, and American workers are struggling. Politicians in America started asking: "Why are we helping Europe get rich while our own people suffer?"

---

America's Big Threat: Pay Up or Else

So what did America do? President Trump basically said: "Pay up or we'll make your products super expensive in our stores." He threatened to put a 30% tax on everything Europe sells to America. That would make European cars, wine, cheese, and designer clothes cost way more for American shoppers.

This wasn't just about money – it was like a big brother telling his little brother: "Do what I say or I'll make your life difficult." But unlike playground bullying, this threat could crash entire economies.

Think about it: if European products suddenly became 30% more expensive in America, Americans would stop buying them. European companies would lose billions of dollars. Workers in Europe would lose their jobs. European governments would lose tax revenue. It would be an economic disaster.

But here's the clever part: Trump didn't just threaten once and walk away. He kept changing the details – sometimes threatening 30% taxes, sometimes 50%, sometimes setting deadlines, sometimes moving them. This wasn't confusion; it was a negotiation tactic. By keeping Europe guessing, he made sure they stayed scared and desperate to make a deal.

Europe's response revealed everything. Instead of immediately fighting back with their own taxes on American goods (which they had prepared), European leaders kept delaying and asking for more time to negotiate. They were essentially saying: "Please don't hurt us; we'll find a way to make you happy."

---

Europe's Big Dream: Getting Ukraine

Meanwhile, Europe had its own huge goal. They wanted to bring Ukraine into their club (the European Union). Why? Because Ukraine is like a massive prize that could transform Europe's position in the world:

Food Power: Ukraine is one of the world's biggest food producers. It grows enough grain to feed 400 million people. Having Ukraine in the EU would mean Europe could feed itself and export food to other countries, making it less dependent on imports and more powerful globally.

Natural Resources: Ukraine has huge deposits of lithium, iron, and other materials needed for phones, computers, electric cars, and renewable energy. As the world goes digital and green, controlling these resources means controlling the future.

Strategic Location: Ukraine sits right between Europe and Russia. Having Ukraine means Russia can't push further into Europe without a major fight. It's like having a big, strong friend standing between you and the school bully.

Economic Growth: Experts predict Ukraine's economy could grow by 26% after joining the EU. That's massive. It would create millions of jobs, generate billions in taxes, and make all of Europe richer.

Young Workers: Europe has an aging population. Fewer babies are being born, and older people are retiring. Ukraine has 40 million people, many of them young and well-educated. They could fill the jobs that Europeans can't or won't do.

But there was one enormous problem: Ukraine was fighting a war with Russia, and Europe couldn't protect Ukraine by itself. European armies are small, their weapons are outdated, and they don't have enough ammunition. They needed America's help, but America was demanding payment for everything.

---

The Secret Solution: "You Buy Our Weapons, We'll Drop the Tariffs"

Here's where the genius (or sneaky) part comes in. America came up with a plan that solved both problems at once:

The Old Way: America gave weapons to Ukraine for free, using American taxpayer money. Between 2022 and 2024, America spent over $31 billion this way. American politicians were getting angry because their voters were asking: "Why are we spending billions on Ukraine when we have problems at home?"

The New Way: European countries buy weapons from American companies and then give those weapons to Ukraine. Europe pays, America gets rich, Ukraine gets protected, and American taxpayers don't complain.

It's like America saying: "Instead of fighting over trade, why don't you just buy our most expensive stuff – weapons – and we'll call it even?"

This wasn't just any ordinary business deal. We're talking about massive amounts of money. A single Patriot missile defense system costs $1.1 billion. F-35 fighter jets cost $80 million each. Artillery shells cost $3,000 each, and Ukraine uses thousands every day.

The beauty of this system is that it creates a perfect cycle: Europe needs weapons to protect Ukraine, America makes the best weapons, Europe buys the weapons, America gets rich, Europe gets security, and Ukraine survives.

---

How the New System Actually Works

The "NATO Pays" model is surprisingly simple but incredibly effective. Here's how it works in practice:

Step 1: European countries like Germany, Poland, or France identify what weapons Ukraine needs – maybe air defense systems, tanks, or ammunition.

Step 2: Instead of asking America to donate these weapons, European countries place orders with American weapons companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, or General Dynamics.

Step 3: These companies manufacture the weapons (creating American jobs) and deliver them to European countries.

Step 4: European countries then transfer these weapons to Ukraine, either directly or through NATO coordination.

Step 5: American companies make billions in profit, American workers get jobs, and America's trade deficit with Europe shrinks.

There's also a faster version: European countries give Ukraine weapons they already own (like Germany giving Ukraine its Patriot systems) and then immediately order replacements from American companies. This gets weapons to Ukraine quickly while still generating business for America.

---

Why This Works for Everyone (Sort Of)

…

---

Don't Settle for Half the Story – Go Premium!

You're currently enjoying The Merchant’s News for free —but you're only getting a fraction of what premium members receive (just 60 cents per day).

Subscribe to The Merchant’s News to unlock the full report

A subscription gets you:

✅ Receive 3+ exclusive, high-quality economic reports each week

✅Full access to the premium content archive

✅Get filtered critical commodity updates, saving you time

✅Actionable financial and market insights